Grantee Research Project Results
2004 Progress Report: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
EPA Grant Number: R828899Title: Predicting the Identity, Spread, and Impact of Future Non-indigenous Species in the Great Lakes
Investigators: Lodge, David M. , Dwyer, Greg
Institution: University of Notre Dame , University of Chicago
Current Institution: University of Chicago , University of Notre Dame
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: July 5, 2001 through July 4, 2004 (Extended to July 4, 2005)
Project Period Covered by this Report: July 5, 2003 through July 4, 2004
Project Amount: $450,000
RFA: Exploratory Research to Anticipate Future Environmental Issues (2000) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Water , Aquatic Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Objective:
The overall objective of this research project is to develop techniques for predicting future invasions of nonindigenous species. Our model system is aquatic organisms introduced to the North American Great Lakes in ballast water from ships, although we also are considering trade in aquatic plants and pets. The specific objectives of this research project are to: (1) identify and quantify organisms introduced in ballast water; (2) use theoretical models to identify conditions conducive to establishment and determine how risk changes with the number of organisms introduced based on the number required to establish a self-sustaining population; and (3) relate different stages of the invasion process to characteristics of different aquatic species and screen species from different regions that are likely to be introduced to the Great Lakes.
Objective 1 will be accomplished by sampling ballast tanks from ships entering the Great Lakes, processing samples to separate viable propagules from detritus and sediment, and identifying and enumerating organisms. Objective 2 will be accomplished through mathematical modeling of representative species using population viability analysis techniques. Objective 3 will be accomplished using multivariate statistical techniques, including discriminant analysis, categorical and regression trees, and logistic regression. The results will be applied to species lists for regions of concern to highlight species requiring special attention.
Progress Summary:
Progress Toward Objective 1
Sample collection and isolation of organisms was completed according to the original schedule. Summary statistics for collected samples have been compiled. Specific taxonomic identifications are underway. Active subcontracts or partnerships with taxonomic specialists are with Dr. James Vancil (aquatic ecologist, Knoxville, TN) for species identification of adult invertebrates and Dr. Timothy Wood (Wright State University) for species identification of bryozoan resting stages (statoblasts). These identifications will be completed by the end of our no-cost extension.
Progress Toward Objective 2
We selected two invasive species for analysis that represent two life histories. First, population viability analyses for the predatory zooplankter, Bythotrephes longimanus, were completed. In addition to its usefulness for assessing invasion risk, this analysis is the first to model population growth as a nonhomogeneous birth-death process, a modeling framework that allows us to distinguish “windows” of high invasion risk (midsummer) from times when invasion risk is negligible (winter). Breakpoints between these times were analyzed quantitatively with our technique. Second, we completed a population viability analysis for an introduced fish, Eurasian ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus). This analysis found no evidence for Allee effects (inverse density dependence) in ruffe. These results have been submitted for publication. An integro-difference model to integrate spatial spread with ruffe life history presently is under development. We hope that this model will indicate if local intervention in population growth (e.g., harvesting) can be a useful tool for managing this invasive species.
Progress Toward Objective 3
We are continuing work toward statistical models identifying potentially invasive fishes from a list of 1,487 fish stocks from Chinese waters that might be transported in ballast or in other pathways. We have developed a statistical model relating economic damages of mollusks to their individual lifetime fecundities (to be submitted for publication). Finally, we are conducting a similar analysis for macrophytes under the joint sponsorship of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sea Grant project. In addition, we have conducted experimental work and a modeling effort on the aquatic weed Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) to assess how human pathways, potentially including ships, may enhance its spread.
Future Activities:
We will complete the molecular/statistical analysis of resting eggs with additional support obtained from the National Science Foundation (doctoral dissertation improvement grant to Drake and Lodge). These results will be used as initial conditions in models for establishment and spread. We will use existing statistical models to extrapolate from our samples to estimate the total number of organisms and total number of species introduced to the Great Lakes in ballast water and sediments each year. Finally, we will conduct a sensitivity analysis on our predictive models for invasive fishes and complete screening of possible invasive fishes from different regions of the world.
Journal Articles on this Report : 12 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 48 publications | 18 publications in selected types | All 18 journal articles |
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Clark JS, Carpenter SR, Barber M, Collins S, Dobson A, Foley JA, Lodge DM, Pascual M, Pielke Jr R, Pizer W, Pringle C, Reid WV, Rose KA, Sala O, Schlesinger WH, Wall DH, Wear D. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 2001;293(5530):657-660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Drake JM. The paradox of the parasites: implications for biological invasion. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences (Biology Letters) 2003;270(Suppl 2):S133-S135. |
R828899 (2004) |
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Drake JM, Keller RP. Environmental justice alert: do developing nations bear the burden of risk for invasive species? BioScience 2004;54(8):719. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Drake JM. Allee effects and the risk of biological invasion. Risk Analysis 2004;24(4):795-802. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Drake JM, Lodge DM. Effects of environmental variation on extinction and establishment. Ecology Letters 2004;7(1):26-30. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Drake JM, Lodge DM. Global hot spots of biological invasions: evaluating options for ballast-water management. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences 2004;271(1539):575-580. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Drake JM. Risk analysis for species introductions: forecasting population growth of Eurasian ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2005;62(5):1053-1059. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Drake JM, Drury KLS, Lodge DM, Blukacz A, Yan ND, Dwyer G. Demographic stochasticity, environmental variability, and windows of invasion risk for Bythotrephes longimanus in North America. Biological Invasions 2006;8(4):843-861. |
R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Kolar CS, Lodge DM. Ecological predictions and risk assessment for alien fishes in North America. Science 2002;298(5596):1233-1236. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Leung B, Lodge DM, Finnof D, Shogren JF, Lewis MA, Lamberti G. An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Sciences 2002;269(1508):2407-2413. |
R828899 (2004) |
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Leung B, Drake JM, Lodge DM. Predicting invasions: Propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 2004;85(6):1651-1660. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) |
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Sakai AK, Allendorf FW, Holt JS, Lodge DM, Molofsky J, With KA, Baughman S, Cabin RJ, Cohen JE, Ellstrand NC, McCauley DE, O'Neil P, Parker IM, Thompson JN, Weller SG. The population biology of invasive species. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 2001;32:305-332. |
R828899 (2002) R828899 (2003) R828899 (2004) R828899 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
exposure, risk, risk assessment, effects, ecological effects, sensitive populations, dose-response, animal, organism, population, stressor, susceptibility, cumulative effects, ecosystem, aquatic, habitat, life-cycle analysis, public policy, decisionmaking, conservation, biology, ecology, limnology, modeling, monitoring, analytical, surveys, Great Lakes, Midwest, business, transportation, RFA, Scientific Discipline, Geographic Area, Water, Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water & Watershed, Monitoring/Modeling, Habitat, Ecological Risk Assessment, Exp. Research/future, Futures, Great Lakes, Watersheds, population dynamics, population variability analysis, habitat dynamics, biodiversity, biopollution, marine ecology, phytoplankton, aquatic ecosytems, habitat disturbance, statistical modeling, ecological pollutants, exploratory research, non-indigenous species, invasive species, aquatic ecosystems, ecological dynamics, irreversible environmental change, ship pathwaysProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.