Grantee Research Project Results
2010 Progress Report: Sustainable Coastal Habitat Restoration in the Pacific Northwest: Modeling and Managing the Effects, Feedbacks, and Risks Associated with Climate Change
EPA Grant Number: R833014Title: Sustainable Coastal Habitat Restoration in the Pacific Northwest: Modeling and Managing the Effects, Feedbacks, and Risks Associated with Climate Change
Investigators: Rybczyk, John , Hood, W. Greg , Reyes, Enrique , Khangaonkar, Tarang , Yang, Zhaoqing
Current Investigators: Rybczyk, John , Reyes, Enrique , Hood, W. Greg , Khangaonkar, Tarang , Yang, Zhaoqing
Institution: Western Washington University , Skagit System Cooperative , Battelle Memorial Institute , East Carolina University
Current Institution: Western Washington University , East Carolina University , Battelle Memorial Institute , Skagit System Cooperative
EPA Project Officer: Packard, Benjamin H
Project Period: April 1, 2007 through March 31, 2010 (Extended to March 31, 2012)
Project Period Covered by this Report: April 1, 2010 through March 31,2011
Project Amount: $879,247
RFA: Nonlinear Responses to Global Change in Linked Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Effects of Multiple Factors on Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Joint Research Solicitation- EPA, DOE (2005) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Climate Change , Aquatic Ecosystems
Objective:
The overall objective of this project is to develop a predictive landscape simulation model, incorporating non-linear feedbacks, of the ecological and geomorphological consequences of climate-induced sea-level rise and river flow alteration in two of the most ecologically significant estuarine systems in Puget Sound, Padilla Bay and Skagit Bay. We use the model to guide the course of restoration and management efforts, given climate change, as they relate to salmon habitat in Puget Sound.
Progress Summary:
During this reporting period, much of our work was devoted to getting the sediment sub-model of the FVCOM model running initialized and calibrated, although we continued collecting field data at sites previously established as part of this grant (to continue to refine model algorithms and for model calibration and validation).
A. Sediment Modeling
This sub-model delivers the simulated sediment load to the Relative Elevation Model. Assumptions of the sediment model, as it runs now, include a one class sediment system, fine sediments only (no bed load), sediment discharge from the Skagit River only, sediment concentrations at open boundaries set to zero, and no bed sediment erosion (for testing purposes only). Initial runs were set to TSS concentrations in the Skagit River of 100 mg/L with sediment settling velocities of 0.05 mm/s. The model was calibrated using comparisons of TSS concentrations in the Sound, measured previously as part of this grant. Physical parameters collected and used for calibration include tidal elevations (pressure gage), currents (ADCP and ADV/S4), salinity, temperature (CTD) time series and vertical profiles and total suspended sediments (see the 2008-2009 Annual Report for details on, and maps of, the oceanographic cruise). Results at this stage are preliminary and included simulated surface and bottom TSS concentrations and flood and ebb tides in the Skagit River Delta (Figures 1a and 1b). We asked for a no-cost extension (through March 2012) to continue our work here.
Flood Tide Ebb Tide
Figure 1a. Simulated Surface TSS at flood and ebb tides in the Skagit River Delta.
Flood Tide Ebb Tide
Figure 1b. Simulated Bottom TSS at flood and ebb tides in the Skagit River Delta.
B. Other Field Activities for Model Initialization, Calibration and Validation
As model development progressed, we also continued collecting and analyzing field data (from sites established earlier as part of this grant) for further model and algorithm refinement. Most notably, biomass/elevation/sedimentation data collected through the summer of 2010 were analyzed to refine the elevation/sedimentation and elevation/productivity models for Padilla Bay (Figure 2a, b and c).
Figure 2a. Elevation vs. spring eelgrass biomass in Padilla Bay. Elevation data and biomass data were collected in the spring of 2010. A complete description of methods and analyses can be found in Kuhlman (2011, see publication list above). We show here a strong negative correlation between biomass and elevation. Highest biomass is found at the lowest elevations.
Figure 2b. Rate of elevation change vs. eelgrass biomass in Padilla Bay. Rates of elevation change were calculated from Surface Elevation Tables monitored from 2002-2010. We show here a weak positive correlation between rates of elevation change and biomass. Highest rates of accretion are found at sites with highest biomass.
Figure 2c. Rates of Surface Elevation Change vs. Elevation in Padilla Bay. Rates of elevation change were calculated from Surface Elevation Tables monitored from 2002-2010. Spring biomass was collected in 2010. We show here a weak negative correlation between rates of elevation change and elevation. Highest rates of accretion are found at the lowest elevations.
Future Activities:
We applied for and received a no-cost extension through March of 2012 to finish calibrating the sediment model, link it to the relative elevation model and run the sea level rise scenarios.
Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 30 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 9 journal articles |
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Fagherazzi S, Kirwan ML, Mudd SM, Guntenspergen GR, Temmerman S, D'Alpaos A, van de Koppel J, Rybczyk JM, Reyes E, Craft C, Clough J. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution:ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors. Reviews of Geophysics 2012;50(1):RG1002. |
R833014 (2010) R833014 (Final) |
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Khangaonkar T, Yang Z. A high-resolution hydrodynamic model of Puget Sound to support nearshore restoration feasibility analysis and design. Ecological Restoration 2011;29(1-2):173-184. |
R833014 (2010) R833014 (Final) |
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Yang Z, Wang T, Khangaonkar T, Breithaupt S. Integrated modeling of flood flows and tidal hydrodynamics over a coastal floodplain. Environmental Fluid Mechanics 2012;12(1):63-80. |
R833014 (2010) R833014 (Final) |
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Supplemental Keywords:
Accretion, delta, Chinook, eelgrass, Pacific Northwest, sea-level rise, subsidence, wetlandsProgress and Final Reports:
Original AbstractThe perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.