Grantee Research Project Results

2013 Progress Report: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice

EPA Grant Number: R834280
Title: Global-to-Urban Models For Minimizing Air Quality And Climate Impacts Of Freight Choice
Investigators: Bond, Tami C. , Smith, Steven J. , Lee, Bumsoo , Barkan, Chris , Ouyang, Yanfeng
Institution: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
EPA Project Officer: Hahn, Intaek
Project Period: November 1, 2009 through October 31, 2012 (Extended to January 31, 2014)
Project Period Covered by this Report: November 1, 2012 through October 31,2013
Project Amount: $599,560
RFA: Adaptation for Future Air Quality Analysis and Decision Support Tools in Light of Global Change Impacts and Mitigation (2008) RFA Text | Recipients Lists
Research Category: Air Quality and Air Toxics , Climate Change , Air

Objective:

We will integrate existing models to produce a global-regional-urban emission model of the international freight system; identify multiple impacts of freight handling decisions under a range of global economic scenarios; and identify robust decisions regarding the freight handling infrastructure under future uncertainty. Hypotheses involve: (1) dominant environmental impacts of freight handling; (2) dependence of modal shift solutions on prior investment; (3) impact of spatial distribution of employment activity centers on emissions; and (4) siting of intermodal terminals.

Progress Summary:

Projections of income, population, and commodity consumption are taken from a global macroeconomic model and downscaled to regional economies using a shift-share model. For inter-regional freight, the downscaling is used to project commodity quantities being transferred between regions. Freight handling activities then are modeled using allocation on rail and road networks. For intra-regional transportation, growth projections are translated into spatial distribution of jobs using an econometric model of density change. An algorithm based on shortest distances then is used to estimate delivery activity. Finally, the freight activity on both inter-regional and intra-regional scales is used to drive a vehicle fleet model that projects changing emissions according to emission standards.

Activities include: (1) freight flow patterns for 2010-2050 between Freight Analysis Zones and estimated congestion in highway and railway networks under four economic scenarios; (2) census tract level employment and population projection for major metropolitan areas; and (3) emission projections of particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and total gaseous hydrocarbons from the United States freight-handling sector.

Projections are given from 2010-2050 under several scenarios. The complete estimation method for inter-regional freight flow has been incorporated into a multi-step Excel file.

Future Activities:

Work will continue on the final reports and papers.

Journal Articles on this Report : 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format

Publications Views
Other project views:	All 21 publications	7 publications in selected types	All 7 journal articles

Publications
Type	Citation	Project	Document Sources
Journal Article	Hwang T, Ouyang Y. Freight shipment modal split and its environmental impacts: an exploratory study. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 2014;64(1):2-12.	R834280 (2012) R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final)	Abstract from PubMed Full-text: Taylor&Francis-Full Text HTML Exit Abstract: Taylor&Francis-Abstract Exit Other: Taylor&Francis-Full Text PDF Exit
Journal Article	Lee S, Lee B. The influence of urban form on GHG emissions in the U.S. household sector. Energy Policy 2014;68:534-549.	R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final)	Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML Exit Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract Exit Other: Science Direct-Full Text PDF Exit
Journal Article	Yan F, Winijkul E, Bond TC, Streets DG. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions. Atmospheric Environment 2014;87:189-199.	R834280 (2012) R834280 (2013) R834280 (Final)	Full-text: ScienceDirect-Full Text HTML Exit Abstract: ScienceDirect-Abstract Exit Other: ScienceDirect-Full Text PDF Exit

Supplemental Keywords:

Exposure, particulate matter, ozone, emissions, ambient air, urban air quality, background air quality, global climate, railroad, trucking, RFA, Air, climate change, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, environmental monitoring

Progress and Final Reports:

Original Abstract

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.